South Sudan Addis Talks: Why Peace accord is likely or unlikely to be signed?

By: Peter Gai Manyuon, Journalist, MAY/17/2018, SSN;

As a fact, the 2013 crisis of South Sudan was caused by suspicion of the unknown among the so-called SPLM leaders. The ongoing peace talks or side meetings in Ethiopia’s Capital, Addis-Ababa, might not bring a genuine peace and stability in South Sudan unless otherwise President Trump of United States goes to Addis Ababa in person to witness what is currently going on among the SPLM factions or serious measures are taken by the world.

So far, the SPLM factions are only looking for what accommodates them not what benefits the common citizens in the Country.

On the same note, the issue of setting up the hybrid court is not in the interest of the SPLM factions mainly, SPLM in government and SPLM in opposition, since all these groups or factions committed crimes against humanity in one way or the other.

What’s likely, the two rivals are looking for the forming of a government where they’d together continue looting the country’s resources like what they did since 2005-2018.

According to their supporter’s comments on various social media platforms, any agreement that doesn’t recognize Salva Kiir Mayardit and Dr Riek Machar is not an agreement.

The two factions of the SPLMs (SPLM in government and SPLM in Opposition) are confusing their supporters day by day.

Another issue could be their families’ resources that might be frozen and the restriction of their travels in different parts of the world in case the two main parties to this crisis don’t agree on the peaceful resolution of the four years crisis.

Furthermore, the issue of two posts (First Vice President, Vice President) if not handled well in the peace talks will lead to the collapse of these talks in Addis. Only if the two groups compromise on the two positions then peace will be signed automatically.

Kiir and his group, on the one hand, wanted to be in top leadership of the Country in order to sabotage any accountability on their part.

Likewise, Dr Machar also wanted to be in the top leadership in order to protect himself using the little resources he might get in the process of running the government of National Unity along with Kiir.

In fact, these two leaders of the SPLM’s main factions wanted to work together again, however, it’s only their supporters and the G10 or G6 that wanted the government without the two, which is impossible at the moment.

The two leaders (Kiir and Machar) will be forced to work together by the issue of accountability since the two don’t want any process of accountability which might impede their participation in the coming elections.

Importantly, Kiir himself is under serious threat from the world regarding the setting up of a hybrid court and as well, Dr. Machar is partially in support while in fact, he doesn’t want any accountability himself since they both view the accountability process as a threat to their ambitions of contesting any future elections in the Country.

They don’t know organizing elections will come after the full agreement and from there, the world will decide to engage the two to account for what transpired since 2013-2018 or more.

The issue of elections should be left to the citizens of South Sudan but currently, the two leaders are soon facing serious isolation from the world and regional leaders, if they are not careful.

Evidently, the two are having serious threats from Trump administration and therefore, their only focus at the moment is how to tackle this issue of peace initiative and thereafter; they will do away with accountability or any threat regarding their positions.

Therefore, those are the issues that might affect and impede any progress in Ethiopia or bring peace in the Country in one way or the other.

Partly, President Kiir doesn’t want any negotiation since he believes on Uganda’s President Museveni’s support while on the other hand, the opposition of Dr. Machar only believes on the United States President Trump’s recent comments toward the government of Kiir in Juba and nothing else.

However, the two groups are believing in lies and unknown support, what they don’t know is that the United States doesn’t want anyone from the so-called SPLM to lead the Country.

But since the entire population of the Country is severely divided themselves mainly between the two rivals (Kiir and Machar), these two protagonists will be compiled to sign any peace whether shaky or genuine.

Thereafter, hopefully, some serious measures should and must be taken against the duo by the world.

Obviously, what is prolonging the crisis in South Sudan is the fact that the International community hasn’t identified the right choice of the candidate who could unite the Country.

All groups of the SPLM that have divided into the SPLM-IG, SPLM-IO, SPLM-FDs and the other stranded briefcase parties, have the same vision and philosophy of only looting national resources.

All lack focus and direction politically and each one of them for himself or herself and currently 80% of them are criminals blacklisted for crimes related to corruption in South Sudan.

In addition, the regional body conducting the peace talks is only interested in prolonging the conflict in South Sudan as a business to make money.

Unquestionably, leaders in South Sudan lack political ideologies and only focus on divisive politics characterized by hooliganism, desperation, primitiveness and worship of idols.

Similarly, these SPLM/A fragments, whilst not only confusing, dividing and killing the citizens, they sadly have the same goal of self-enrichment by looting the nation’s resources.

All of them are vision-less, only interested in what benefits them not the Country or it’s suffering people.

In conclusion, the International Community must impose time limitation on these talks and have an agreement reached sooner.

Furthermore, the world must question the top leaders of all these parties to account for the war crimes committed, crimes against humanity and cases related to corruption in the Country.

There must be seriousness on accountability on the part of these goons of the SPLM/A into an agreement so that a lasting peace returns to the Country and younger leaders take over.

Peter Gai Manyuon, is an author, Independent Journalist, and Columnist who has written extensively on Human Rights and Democracy in South Sudan He can be reached at southsudanjournalist@gmail.com or www.independentjournalistpgm.wordpress.com
Peter Gai Manyuon |