Lots has been written here on this blog regarding the disputed Abyei area in regards to Sudan’s future and its stability.
The exact demarcation of the area, straddling the border of north and south Sudan, has been a contentious issue for several reasons; the significant oil deposits in it, the historical implications of the boundary location (prioritizing tribal and colonial boundaries vs. contemporary boundaries); and the win/lose sentiment of regional political constituencies (whether or not important constituencies of the north or the south achieve their local objectives). Needless to say, it has been a high-stakes process.
The international arbitration effort underway in the Hague will give their final report on the process on the 23rd of July. That will be the date to watch this space. It is a key indicator of the future of the north/south peace.
The Government of Southern Sudan has reiterated their willingness to accept the outcome, come what may, while the NCP in Khartoum hasn’t renewed their earlier commitment to live up to the arbitration’s outcome. This may be something to consider, but it could be inconsequential; the NCP could simply have overlooked their need to state a continued confidence in the process and willingness to abide by the outcome. Either way, we shall soon see what the ruling will bring.