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Posts published in “Analysis”

World: Preventive Priorities Survey: 2019

Source: Council on Foreign Relations
Country: Afghanistan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Croatia, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Iraq, Montenegro, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Nigeria, occupied Palestinian territory, Pakistan, Serbia, Somalia, South Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), World, Yemen, Zimbabwe

U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential crises or conflicts around the world in the coming year in CFR’s annual survey.

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Each year since 2008, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests.

“The annual Preventive Priorities Survey is unique in providing a regular, forward-looking assessment of conflict and instability around the world in a way that helps policymakers focus attention on the most important risks,” explains Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and CPA director.

Read more on Council on Foreign Relations.

Uganda: Integration of health services, access and utilization by refugees and host populations in West Nile districts, Uganda

Source: BioMed Central
Country: Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda

Henry Komakech, Lynn Atuyambe and Christopher Garimoi Orach

Conflict and Health 201913:1

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-018-0184-7 | © The Author(s). 2019

Abstract

Prolonged ci...

World: 2019 Early Warning Forecast – Conflict & Climate: Drivers of Disaster

Source: Lutheran World Relief
Country: Cameroon, Chad, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ecuador, Jordan, Lebanon, Niger, Nigeria, occupied Palestinian territory, Peru, South Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), World, Yemen

The 2019 Early Warning Forecast, a publication of Lutheran World Relief and IMA World Health

BALTIMORE, Jan. 2, 2019 - Lutheran World Relief (LWR), an international NGO working to develop sustainable solutions to poverty, and IMA World Health, a faith-based agency that helps vulnerable communities to address their public health challenges, have released the 2019 Early Warning Forecast of regions they are monitoring for potential or worsening humanitarian crises over the coming year: Conflict & Climate: Drivers of Disaster.

Ambassador Daniel V. Speckhard, president & CEO, noted that armed conflict is a thread running through the world's current crises. "These will be two of the most critical driving forces behind humanitarian emergencies over the next year and into the foreseeable future, even if their effects are indirect," he said.

"Armed conflict continues to cause some of the world's largest and most direct humanitarian crises, including the war in Yemen, the ongoing conflict in Syria and fighting in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It is the source of the highest levels of displacement on record, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. An unprecedented 65.3 million people have been forced from their homes, more than half of them children," Speckhard said.

Speckhard noted that climate change has also been identified as a major driver behind the recent increase in global hunger, after years of promising decline, as well as the cause of severe food crises.

"The negative impact of climate change on global food production, its impact on food security and livelihoods, and increased degradation of natural resources all makes this a vicious circle that threatens to spiral downward without immediate, decisive action," he said.

The countries and regions on the 2019 Watch List include:

  • Yemen: the world's worst humanitarian catastrophe

  • Are superstorms the new normal?

  • A legacy of suffering in the Democratic Republic of Congo

  • Undermining the Palestinian health system in East Jerusalem

  • Venezuela fuels a regional crisis

  • A regional crisis deteriorates in the Lake Chad Basin

  • The shrinking humanitarian space

The 2019 Early Warning Forecast can be downloaded at https://lwr.exposure.co/conflict-climate-drivers-of-disaster.

World: Security Council Report Monthly Forecast, December 2018

Source: Security Council Report
Country: Afghanistan, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, occupied Palestinian territory, South Sudan, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, World

Overview

Côte d’Ivoire will have the presidency in December. It is planning two high-level meetings. The first is a briefing, chaired by Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, which will focus on the importance of economic recovery for successful postconflict transitions. The second is a ministeriallevel open debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations in the prevention and resolution of conflicts.

A meeting on drug trafficking in west and central Africa is also planned.

Other African issues include:

• Central African Republic, renewal of mandate following one-month technical rollover in November;

• Guinea-Bissau, an update on developments;

• South Sudan, on the activities of UNMISS;

• Sudan, the quarterly briefing by the sanctions chair and semi-annual briefing on the ICC’s work; and

• UNOCA/LRA, an update on the activities of the UN Office in Central Africa and the regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army.

With regard to Syria, there will be the regular briefings on the political and humanitarian situation and on chemical weapons. In addition, Council members are expected to negotiate and put to a vote a draft resolution renewing the authorisation
for cross-border and cross-line humanitarian access, which expires on 10 January 2019. Other Middle East issues include the renewal of UNDOF and the regular monthly briefing and consultations on Israel/Palestine.

Regarding other regional issues, there will be the quarterly debate on Afghanistan and a briefing on the situation in Haiti.

The Secretary-General is expected to report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme.

Council members will receive their first briefing by the Special Adviser and head of the UN Investigative Team for Accountability of Da’esh in early December.

The Council will hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals.

There will also be the annual briefing by outgoing subsidiary body chairs, reviewing their experience and developments during their term as chairs of committees or working groups.

A meeting on the human rights situation in the DPRK is also possible in December.

Members will be following developments in Ukraine and Yemen closely over the month, and meetings may be scheduled if necessary.

South Sudan: Briefing Paper: Identity and Self-Determination -The Fertit Opposition in South Sudan (December 2018)

Source: Small Arms Survey
Country: South Sudan
New HSBA Briefing Paper: How decades of perceived injustice turned one South Sudanese minority group into an armed faction

The Fertit community is a minority group in South Sudan that inhabit the former W...

World: Documenting the United States’ Commitment to Conventional Weapons Destruction: To Walk the Earth in Safety (January–December 2017)

Source: Government of the United States of America
Country: Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Colombia, Croatia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ecuador, Georgia, Honduras, Iraq, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People's Democratic Republic (the), Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Marshall Islands, Mozambique, Myanmar, occupied Palestinian territory, Palau, Senegal, Serbia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Viet Nam, World, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Stockpiles of excess, poorly-secured, or otherwise at-risk conventional weapons continue to pose a challenge to peace and prosperity worldwide. In the wrong hands, SA/LW fuel political instability and violence, while more advanced conventional weapons, such as MANPADS, pose a serious threat to international security. Aging munitions stockpiles may also explode without warning, devastating nearby population centers. Meanwhile, landmines and ERW, including cluster munition remnants, artillery shells, and mortars, continue to kill and maim people even after conflicts end. Clearing land paves the way for stabilization assistance to move forward, allowing displaced persons to return home, economic revitalization to begin, and political stability to take root.

The U.S. Government’s Collaborative Approach

The United States is committed to reducing these threats worldwide and is the leading financial supporter of CWD, providing more than $3.2 billion in assistance to more than 100 countries since 1993. This makes the United States the world’s single largest financial supporter of CWD. The Department of State, Department of Defense, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) work together with foreign governments, private companies, and international and nongovernmental organizations to reduce excess SA/LW and conventional munitions stockpiles (including MANPADS), implement physical security and stockpile management (PSSM) best practices at conventional weapons storage sites, and carry out humanitarian mine action programs.

The Department of State, through the Political-Military Affairs Bureau’s Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement (PM/WRA), manages CWD assistance and oversees programs in 47 countries in 2017. It also leads the U.S. Interagency MANPADS Task Force, which coordinates counter-MANPADS efforts by the Departments of State, Defense, Homeland Security, and other relevant stakeholders, and helps partner nations eliminate or better secure their MANPADS. The Department of Defense Humanitarian Demining Training Center (HDTC) trains deminers, ammunition handlers, and stockpile managers from partner countries. The Department of Defense Humanitarian Demining Research and Development Program (HD R&D) improves CWD technologies, enhancing the efficiency and safety of humanitarian demining operations around the world. USAID assists mine and UXO survivors, providing medical and rehabilitative care, through its Leahy War Victims Fund.

Department of State Support for CWD

Through PM/WRA, the Department of State has managed more than 68 percent (over $2.2 billion) of the United States’ more than $3.2 billion contribution to CWD since 1993, with a three-fold objective:

  1. Enhance U.S. and international security by destroying and securing SA/LW, including MANPADS, at risk of proliferation to terrorists, insurgents, and other violent non-state actors;

  2. Remediate explosive remnants of war (ERW), returning land to safe and productive use; and 3. Accelerate achievement of U.S. foreign policy objectives by broadening support for CWD efforts.

PM/WRA partners with nongovernmental organizations, international organizations, educational institutions, and private sector contractors to implement its programs. Robust project performance standards, enhanced monitoring and evaluation strategies, and a comprehensive program planning process guide PM/WRA’s resource allocation decisions and hold implementing partners accountable.

The measurable, tangible results that flow from the U.S. government’s commitment to CWD programs strongly support U.S. foreign policy priorities. In addition, these programs help protect the lives and livelihoods of civilians so they can more safely remain in their own countries. We look forward to continuing this important work.

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