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Somalia: IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for April 2019 and Forecasts for June 2019 (Bulletin Issue May 2019)

Source: Intergovernmental Authority on Development
Country: Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania

  1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the April 2019 climate conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region and highlights the June 2019 rainfall and temperature forecasts together with the socio-economic impacts associated with both the observed and the expected climatic conditions. There are six sections in this bulletin. The major highlights from both the observed and expected climate conditions are outlined in Section 2. Section 3 discusses the climate patterns that prevailed in the month of April 2019, while the dominant weather systems are discussed in Section 4. In Section 5, the June 2019 climate forecasts over the GHA are presented. The socio-economic impacts associated with the observed climatic conditions and those expected from June 2019 climate forecasts are outlined in Section 6. For referencing within this bulletin, the GHA is generally divided into three sub-sectors: The equatorial sector lying approximately betweenoN and 5 oS latitude, while the northern and southern sectors lie in the north and south of the equatorial region respectively. 2. HIGHLIGHTS Rainfall is usually expected over the equatorial sector, southern parts of the northern sector as well as northern and eastern parts of the southern sector of the GHA during the month of April. Several places in southeast and southwest part of the northern sector, and western and eastern parts of the equatorial sector of the GHA recorded rainfall that was below normal. Much of the rest of the GHA recorded near normal rainfall, except for northern and central Ethiopia, northwest Kenya, parts of east and southern Rwanda, northern Burundi, and several parts of Tanzania which recorded above normal rainfall, during the month of April 2019 (Figure 2 and 3). Several parts of the equatorial sector and southern sector of the GHA and also including southern part of the northern sector of the GHA recorded maximum and minimum temperature that was warmer than the climatological mean. Most of the northern, western, and southeast part of the northern sector of the GHA recorded maximum and minimum temperature that was cooler than the climatological mean for the month of April 2019. Some areas in the equatorial sector of the GHA reported drier conditions as a result of delayed onset of rainfall in the March to April season, which was an extended drier conditions from short rain season in September to December 2018, leading to water stress related impacts. The general rainfall condition in the southern sector and western parts of the equatorial sector of GHA resulted in the improvement of water and pasture conditions which might increase prospects of good crop, and livestock productivity. By April 2019, the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), a primary index used to monitor the El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had a positive signal (Figure 7a) denoting an El Nino condition. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indicated a neutral condition (Figure 7b).The ONI and IOD are forecasted to persist in positive and neutral phases respectively over much of the second quarter of 2019.
    In the month of June 2019, rainfall is expected to be concentrated over southern and central parts of the northern sector, and northwest and central parts of equatorial sector of the GHA (Figure 8a).
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